The 90th Academy Awards are this Sunday, March 4, and they boast an unusually strong lineup of nominees. Like we do every year, we thought we’d go through the categories and predict who will win, and who should win, because they’re not always the same person.
Best Picture
Dunkirk; Get Out; Lady Bird; Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri; The Shape of Water; Phantom Thread; Darkest Hour; The Post; Call Me By Your Name
After winning big at the Golden Globes and the BAFTAs, it looked as though Three Billboards had this sewn up – until Martin McDonagh missed out on a Best Director nomination. Only four films have ever won Best Picture without their director being nominated as well (Wings, Grand Hotel, Driving Miss Daisy, and Argo). Which is just as well, because Three Billboards is undoubtedly the weakest film of this group. This will come down to The Shape of Water, with its intimidating 13 total nominations, or Get Out, which has been a part of the cultural conversation since its release last February. Either would be a worthy victor, although Get Out would be the most progressive choice.
Will Win: The Shape of Water
Should Win: Get Out
Best Director
Jordan Peele, Get Out; Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water; Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird; Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk; Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread
Another incredibly strong group – somehow, Anderson has zero Oscars, and this is Nolan’s first nomination in this category. Common knowledge has this going to del Toro, but consider what Nolan did with Dunkirk, with its three separate temporalities and white-knuckle intensity. Forgive the hyperbole, but in many ways Nolan redefined what a war movie can, and should, be.
Will Win: Guillermo del Toro
Should Win: Christopher Nolan
Best Actor
Timothee Chalamet, Call Me By Your Name; Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread; Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour; Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out; Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq.
This has been coming down to Chalamet vs. Oldman for some time now. Will the Academy recognize the warhorse who has been turning in consistently great work for decades, yet has never picked up an Oscar? Or will it award the younger man at the start of his career, poised to make Oscar history (at 22, Chalamet would be the youngest winner of this award)? If there’s an upset, expect it to come from Day-Lewis, whose work on Phantom Thread is not only his swan song, but also a terrific performance from arguably the greatest actor to ever live. Sentimentality might convince the Academy to send him out in style.
Will Win: Gary Oldman
Should Win: Timothee Chalamet
Best Actress
Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water; Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird; Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri; Margot Robbie, I, Tonya; Meryl Streep, The Post
Although Streep has no chance here, it should be mentioned that her work in The Post is fantastic: easily her best, most nuanced performance since Adaptation. This will either go to McDormand or Ronan, who, at only 23, is on her third Oscar nomination. McDormand is a force of nature in Three Billboards, but even she has said that it’s time to give someone else an award.
Will Win: Saoirse Ronan
Should Win: Saoirse Ronan
Best Supporting Actor
Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water; Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri; Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri; Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project; Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World
It’s a shame that Jenkins is only being recognized somewhat recently for his immense talent. The man gave an award-worthy performance in Step Brothers, for crying out loud. But he’ll go home empty-handed once again. Rockwell has this pretty locked up, which is fine. Although his character is the most problematic aspect of Three Billboards, the man himself is a terrific actor, and we can all pretend that the award is for something like Moon (like how I pretend that Alicia Vikander’s Oscar is for Ex Machina). The award really should go to Dafoe, playing against type and in turn delivering maybe the best performance of his career.
Will Win: Sam Rockwell
Should Win: Willem Dafoe
Best Supporting Actress
Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water; Allison Janney, I, Tonya; Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird; Mary J. Blige, Mudbound; Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread
There is no universe in which Janney doesn’t win this. Which is fine! Who doesn’t love the phrase “Academy Award winner Allison Janney”? That said, consider Metcalf’s work in Lady Bird: quiet, humane, and never a level below perfect.
Will Win: Allison Janney
Should Win: Laurie Metcalf
Best Adapted Screenplay
James Ivory, Call Me By Your Name; Scott Neustadter and MIchael H. Weber, The Disaster Artist; Scott Frank & James Mangold and Michael Green, Logan; Aaron Sorkin, Molly’s Game; Virgil Williams and Dee Rees, Mudbound
This is going to Ivory in a walk. The man is a Hollywood institution, is 89 years old, and has never won an Oscar. But think of how cool a win for Logan would be. Frank, Mangold, and Green turned pulp into high art and created a blockbuster that will thrill you and leave you emotionally ravaged. Superhero movies aren’t going anywhere, and a win for Logan could convince everyone to step up their game.
Will Win: Call Me By Your Name
Should Win: Logan
Best Original Screenplay
Emily V. Gordon and Kumail Nanjiani, The Big Sick; Jordan Peele, Get Out; Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird; Guillermo del Toro and Vanessa Taylor, The Shape of Water; Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
It’s important to remember that Lady Bird‘s screenplay is perfect, and heralds the arrival of a major talent in writer/director Gerwig. But I think this will, and should, go to Peele. Get Out works on so many levels: horror, satire, even farce. Peele took the specter of racism and cultural appropriation and turned it into a literal horror movie. No small feat.
Will Win: Get Out
Should Win: Get Out
Best Cinematography
Roger Deakins, Blade Runner 2049; Rachel Harrison, Mudbound; Bruno Delbonnel, Darkest Hour; Hoyte van Hoytema, Dunkirk; Dan Laustsen, The Shape of Water
I’m torn on this category. On the one hand, I’d love to see Harrison win, not only because it would make history (she is this category’s first female nominee), but because her work on Mudbound is terrific. But Roger Deakins, one of the most talented cinematographers who ever got behind a camera (on my Mount Rushmore with Vittorio Storaro, Gordon Willis, and Emmanuel Lubezki) has never won an Oscar. Blade Runner 2049 is a masterpiece of visual storytelling, and Deakins is largely responsible.
Will Win: Roger Deakins
Should Win: Roger Deakins
Best Animated Feature
Coco; Ferdinand; The Boss Baby; Loving Vincent; The Breadwinner
Oh, cool, I see we have room for The fucking Boss Baby because we’re all just pretending that The LEGO Batman Movie doesn’t exist, right? What is the Academy’s anti-LEGO bias? The LEGO Movie wasn’t nominated in 2015 either. Anyway, Coco.
Will Win: Coco
Should Win: Coco
Best Original Score
Hans Zimmer, Dunkirk; Jonny Greenwood, Phantom Thread; Alexandre Desplat, The Shape of Water; John Williams, Star Wars: The Last Jedi; Carter Burwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Another category that is absolutely stacked. Desplat has been getting a lot of attention for Shape, and rightfully so; elsewhere, Zimmer’s Dunkirk score is maybe the best he’s ever composed; it would be a different, lesser film without it. It’s Greenwood who should take home the trophy, though: Phantom Thread is stately, elegiac, and classical. And as much as I hate the concept of anyone being “due,” the Academy owes Greenwood – because of convoluted eligibility rules, Greenwood was snubbed for There Will Be Blood, one of the best film scores of the twenty-first century.
Will Win: Jonny Greenwood
Should Win: Jonny Greenwood
I’m going to zoom through the rest of the categories, with only prediction of who will win. Keep in mind, most of these (like anything in the shorts category) are based on nothing.
Best Animated Short: “Dear Basketball”
Best Documentary: Faces Places
Best Documentary Short: “Heroin(e)”
Best Live Action Short: “DeKalb Elementary”
Best Foreign Language Film: A Fantastic Woman (Chile)
Best Film Editing: Alex Gibson and Richard King, Dunkirk
Best Sound Editing: Julian Slater, Baby Driver
Best Sound Mixing: Mary H. Ellis, Julian Slater, and Tim Cavigan, Baby Driver
Best Production Design: Paul D. Asterberry, Jeffrey A. Melvin, and Shane Vieau, The Shape of Water
Best Original Song: Sufjan Stevens, “Mystery of Love” (Call Me By Your Name)
Best Makeup and Hair: Kazuhiro Tsuji, David Malinowski, and Lucy Sibbick, Darkest Hour
Best Costume Design: Mark Bridges, Phantom Thread
Best Visual Effects: Christopher Townsend, Guy Williams, Jonathan Fawkner, and Dan Sudick, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2
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