The Oscars are finally happening. It’s been a long, strange trip, and the resultant group of nominees is the most diverse in the history of the Academy, not to mention the most interesting in recent memory. However, the Academy is not nearly as cool as these nominations would suggest. When given the opportunity to reward Brokeback Mountain, they reward Crash; they give Green Book an Oscar over Roma; Jim Broadbent won for a performance that no one has ever seen, over Ian McKellan in a performance that I think about every day. But with Parasite walking away with four Oscars last year, hell, maybe things are finally changing. Here’s our (slightly cynical) look at who should – and who will – win this Sunday.

Best Supporting Actor

Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago Seven

Lakeith Stanfield, Judas and the Black Messiah

Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah

Leslie Odom, Jr., One Night in Miami…

Paul Raci, Sound of Metal

Let’s give up for this category being 60% actors of color. That said, it’s a mess. First, there’s the baffling omission of Delroy Lindo in Da 5 Bloods (which is a supporting performance, not a lead), then the category fraud of nominating Stanfield for a lead performance. Lead is a crowded category this year, so it makes sense why he was pushed for supporting, but it all but robs Kaluuya of any chance of being recognized for his tempestuous turn as Black Panther Fred Hampton. Raci is understated and humane, but given the choice, this will go to the actor who sings.

Should win: Paul Raci

Will win: Leslie Odom, Jr.

Best Supporting Actress

Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy

Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

Olivia Colman, The Father

Amanda Seyfried, Mank

Yuh-Jung Youn, Minari

Strangely – and happily – Youn has the edge here. She just picked up a SAG and a BAFTA for her performance, both of which could presage victory on Sunday. But it’s not a sure thing. Seyfried has been waiting for anointment for a while now, Colman is riding high off of her win for The Favorite, Close is “due” (whatever that means), and Bakalova’s performance is nothing short of revelatory. Really, this is anyone’s game, and maybe the tightest race of the night.

Should win: Maria Bakalova

Will win: Glenn Close (like I said, these picks are cynical)

Best Actor

Gary Oldman, Mank

Anthony Hopkins, The Father

Steven Yuen, Minari

Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal

This, on the other hand, is one of the easiest categories to predict. Boseman would walk away with this even if he hadn’t tragically passed last year (I said the same of Heath Ledger’s win for The Dark Knight). Oldman and Hopkins are both very good, but they’ve also both won. The inclusion of Yuen and Ahmed here is a sign of a new, more diverse generation of actors running the show. But we lost a king last year. It’s time to give him a crown.

Will win: Chadwick Boseman

Should win: Chadwick Boseman

Best Actress

Frances McDormand, Nomadland

Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman

Andra Day, United States vs. Billie Holliday

Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman

It’s never wise to bet against McDormand, and for good reason. Far from being something as reductive as an “Academy darling,” she truly is one of the best actresses alive, and in every scene of Nomadland, she doesn’t play a character as much as she inhabits a person. But this is going to Davis in a walk. There’s good reason for this; she’s electric as the title character in Ma Rainey, but she also gets to do a lot of the Academy’s favorite things: play a real person; play a queer person; sing; get slathered in makeup to make her look less beautiful.

Will win: Viola Davis

Should win: Viola Davis

Best Original Screenplay

The Trial of the Chicago Seven

Minari

Mank

Promising Young Woman

Sound of Metal

When nominations were first announced, I would have said that Aaron Sorkin had this sewn up for Chicago Seven. But that movie has lost a significant amount of steam, leaving four (well, maybe three) very interesting nominees. In my mind, the likely winner is Emerald Fennell for her fiery #MeToo thriller Promising Young Woman, but in my heart I’d love to see this go to Darius Marder for Sound of Metal, his unflinching, compassionate look at disability and addiction.

Will win: Promising Young Woman

Should win: Sound of Metal

Adapted Screenplay

Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

The Father

Nomadland

The White Tiger

One Night in Miami…

Borat Subsequent Moviefilm is an odd inclusion here, and will likely go home empty-handed; two other nominees are based on plays, and another on a novel. For my money, the best example here of adapting a story is Nomadland, which carves a semi-fictional narrative out of a nonfiction book.

Will win: Nomadland

Should win: Nomadland

Best Director

Chloe Zhao, Nomadland

Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman

Tomas Vinterberg, Another Round

Lee Isaac Chung, Minari

David Fincher, Mank

This is one of the most exciting categories of the night: the only white man nominated is also the only veteran of this category, and while I can’t wait to see Fincher win one of these (which he should have already, for The Social Network), it’s not going to be this year. Zhao has the momentum; she’s been more or less unstoppable this entire season.

Will win: Chloe Zhao

Should win: Chloe Zhao

Best Picture

Nomadland

Mank

Minari

Promising Young Woman

Judas and the Black Messiah

The Father

The Trial of the Chicago Seven

Promising Young Woman

Sound of Metal

This is another exciting category, although it does have the usual academy fare (The Trial of the Chicago Seven) as well as a movie that – fun fact – does not exist (The Father). What’s most surprising is the omission of One Night in Miami…, which I expected to see popping up a lot more. A case could be made for a lot of these movies, my personal favorites being Nomadland and Sound of Metal. The former is your most likely winner, despite the predictable, and predictably tiring, backlash that’s risen up from terminally online film critics who have made up a contingent of people who think that Nomadland portrays working for Amazon in a positive light. These people do not exist. There are a lot of deserving potential winners on this list, but I think it will go to Chloe Zhao’s quiet, dignified portrayal of another America, one made up of the castaways and refugees that we see every day but never notice.

Will win: Nomadland

Should win: Nomadland

And here are some predictions in sundry other categories:

Best Original Score: Soul

Best Original Song: “Speak Now” (from One Night in Miami…)

Best Animated Feature: Soul

Best International Feature: Another Round

Best Documentary Feature: Time

Best Cinematography: Nomadland

Best Costume Design: Mank

Best Editing: Sound of Metal

Best Makeup and Hairstyling: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

Best Production Design: Mank

Best Sound: Sound of Metal

Best Visual Effects: Tenet

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