With the Oscars just around the corner, it’s time for – you guessed it – marginally informed guessing! Here we’ll break down the likely, and in some cases more deserving, winners you’ll see on Sunday.

Best Supporting Actor

The Nominees: Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin; Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin; Bryan Tyree Henry, Causeway; Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once; Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans

Common knowledge has Ke Huy Quan winning the Oscar, because, well, Ke Huy Quan is going to win the Oscar. Quan’s comeback narrative is compelling, but beyond that his performance is incredible. This is as close to a sure thing as you’ll see all night.

Will Win: Ke Huy Quan

Should Win: Ke Huy Quan

But have you considered…? Consider Judd Hirsch in The Fabelmans. He walks in for one scene, captivates both young Sammy Fabelman and the audience, and then his specter hangs over the rest of the film. It’s an incredible one-scene performance, the kind we rarely get anymore.

Best Supporting Actress

The Nominees: Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once; Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once; Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin; Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever; Hong Chau, The Whale

Bassett is the presumptive winner here, although Curtis’s recent victory at the SAG Awards makes her less of a lock. The nominations for Chau, Condon, and Hsu are more of a vote of confidence in their future work, and I’d be surprised if this was the last time we saw any of their names in the Oscar conversation. But realistically this is a two-woman race. I think it’s (deservedly) going to Bassett. Wakanda Forever manages to act as a moving tribute to the late Chadwick Boseman without ever crossing the bridge into maudlin territory, and Bassett is the film’s beating heart.

Will Win: Angela Bassett

Should Win: Angela Bassett

But Have You Considered…? Consider Stephanie Hsu. Ignore for a moment that this is the first time a Queer actor has been nominated for playing a Queer character since Ian McKellan for Gods and Monsters in 1998. Hsu is both the villain and emotional fulcrum of her multiversal film, and holds her own against industry stalwarts like Curtis and Michelle Yeoh. It’s a phenomenal performance by an incredibly exciting new actor.

Best Original Screenplay

The Nominees: Todd Field, Tar; Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin; Ruben Ostlund, Triangle of Sadness; Steven Spielberg and Tony Kushner, The Fabelmans; Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert, Everything Everywhere All at Once

This most likely comes down to EEAAO – which will likely sweep most categories – and Banshees. McDonagh has been nominated before, and luckily for his chances, Banshees is much better than his previous nominated film (Three Billboard Outside Ebbing, Missouri). Tar is somehow the dark horse here, but for my money it’s the most deserving nominee. Field manages to deliberate power dynamics and cancel culture without ever making broad statements. It’s a screenplay built on nuance.

Will Win: Kwan and Scheinert, EEAAO

Should Win: Field, Tar

But Have You Considered…? Spielberg and Kushner for The Fabelmans, an astonishingly honest portrayal of the way art can consume your life. As of now it’s the closest we’ve got to a Spielberg autobiography, and you can feel his hands on every line of dialogue.

Best Adapted Screenplay:

The Nominees: Kazuo Ishiguro, Living; Sarah Polley, Women Talking; Rian Johnson, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery; Edward Berger, Lesley Paterson & Ian Stokell, All Quiet On the Western Front; Ehren Kruger, Christopher McQuarrie, and Eric Warren Singer, Top Gun: Maverick

If Johnson didn’t win for the first Knives Out, he’s unlikely to win for the follow-up, but it’s very cool to see the Academy encouraging new and original works. AQOTWF is a masterpiece, but will likely win in other categories. In my mind this goes to Women Talking, Sarah Polley’s cutting adaptation of Miriam Toew’s brutally timely novel, but remember that Ishiguro is a Nobel laureate adapting one of Akira Kurosawa’s most monumental works (Ikiru), and the Academy might want to honor that.

Will Win: Women Talking

Should Win: Women Talking

But Have You Considered…? Top Gun: Maverick, seemingly an odd inclusion here, but one that makes more sense once you realize that Maverick needs a script this tight to function as well it does. This thing moves like clockwork, and the script laid the foundation for one of the most outrageously entertaining movies in years.

Best Actor

The Nominees: Brendan Fraser, The Whale; Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin; Austin Butler, Elvis; Paul Mescal, Aftersun; Bill Nighy, Living

This is another two-way race, this time between Farrell and Butler. Farrell is giving the most interesting performance of his fascinating career, but Butler is playing Elvis, meaning he’s likely to win this. The Academy awarding actors for playing historical figures is officially the most boring part of the ceremony, and unfortunately the most predictable as well (going back to the 2011 Oscars, 21 actors have won for playing real people). Butler gets points at least for being better than Rami Malek and his dreadful performance as Freddie Mercury. But we should still ask more from the Academy.

Will Win: Butler

Should Win: Farrell

But Have You Considered…? Paul Mescal, giving a mesmerizing performance in one of the year’s best films. Aftersun – and its shattering final shot – doesn’t work without someone absolutely nailing the role of Calum, and Mescal was not only the perfect choice, his performance is so lived-in and nuanced that he seems like the only choice.

Best Actress

The Nominees: Cate Blanchett, Tar; Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once; Ana de Armas, Blonde; Andrea Riseborough, To Leslie; Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans

Williams shot herself in the foot by campaigning as a lead, considering A, hers is absolutely a supporting role, and B, there’s no way she can unseat Blanchett or Yeoh. Riseborough won’t be able to overcome the controversy surrounding her nomination, which sucks because it’s not her fault and she deserves recognition for her Tilda Swinton-like ability to disappear into her roles. But all this is background noise for the tightest race of the night: will the Oscar go to Yeoh, as a capstone for a long career of brilliant work, or to Blanchett, arguably the greatest living actress delivering an iconic performance?

Will Win: Blanchett

Should Win: Yeoh

But Have You Considered…? Ana de Armas as Marilyn Monroe in Andrew Dominik’s highly divisive Blonde. Dominik’s film is confrontational in its unwillingness to flinch away from the ugliness of Hollywood, and de Armas interprets Monroe as no other actress ever has. It’s breathtaking, and beautiful amid the film’s intentional ugliness.

Best Director

The Nominees: Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert, Everything Everywhere All at Once; Ruben Ostlund, Triangle of Sadness; Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin; Todd Field, Tar; Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans

Oscar pundits would have you believe that Ostlund can pull an upset here, but ask yourself how that worked out for Drive My Car‘s Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Another Round‘s Tomas Vinterberg, or Cold War‘s Pawel Pawelowski. An upset is extremely unlikely; there are no outliers here, by which I mean every nominee listed is the director of a Best Picture nominee. Kwan and Scheinert have this more or less locked down, which is fine by me. We need to see more directing duos take this prize home (the last duo that won was the Coen Brothers, for No Country for Old Men).

Will Win: Kwan and Scheinert

Should Win: Kwan and Scheinert

But Have You Considered…? EEAAO is maybe the most directed film of the year, but is it the best directed one? Look at Todd Field’s stately work in Tar, in all of its quiet daring. The twenty-minute unbroken shot in Julliard alone is one of 2022’s most thrilling, high-wire scenes.

Best Picture

The Nominees: Tar; Everything Everywhere All at Once; Avatar: The Way of Water; Top Gun: Maverick; The Banshees of Inisherin; Triangle of Sadness; All Quiet on the Western Front; The Fabelmans; Women Talking; Elvis

EEAAO is poised to sweep the Oscars, and don’t expect this category to be any different. Tar, once the front-runner, could possibly pull an upset, and don’t forget that Spielberg unexpectedly won the Golden Globe for The Fabelmans. The problem with the Academy’s dopey ten-nominee rule is that so many of the nominations are condolence prizes, and ultimately is lessens the honor of the nomination itself. EEAAO wasn’t my favorite film of the year – I think I had it at #9 in my rankings – but I can’t pretend it wouldn’t be a deserving winner. After a series of misfires including films like CODA and Green Book, if the Academy wants to award something this strange and unlikely, I’m all for it.

Will Win: Everything Everywhere All at Once

Should Win: Tar

But Have You Considered…? All Quiet on the Western Front, which launched itself into the conversation after its surprise win at the BAFTAs. Edward Berger’s adaptation of Erich Maria Remarque’s novel is a stunning, harrowing achievement, and an unfortunately timely one, considering the ongoing tragedy in the Ukraine. The Academy might want to recognize that; moreover, it’s hard to resist the poetry of awarding a classic story twice (AQOTWF was also the Best Picture winner for 1930).

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