With the Golden Globes in the bag, and the seemingly endless awards season upon us, we thought we’d make a few uneducated guesses about the films you might see nominated for Academy Awards (the actual nominations will be announced January 22). We’re just sticking to predicting the six major categories.

Best Picture

Our Predictions: Green Book; A Star is Born; The Favourite; BlacKkKlansman; Roma; First Man; Black Panther; Vice

The Academy allows up to ten nominees, but rarely reaches that number. Those films above are as close to a sure thing as you’re likely to get. First Reformed is critically beloved (it was our #1 film of the year) but hasn’t gotten a lot of love from major awards-giving bodies. Sorry to Bother You is terrific but divisive. Eighth Grade might sneak in there, and Bohemian Rhapsody‘s recent Globe win could give it the boost that it needs. The Coen brothers haven’t gotten the Academy love that they once did – their last two films netted only one nomination – and the Academy still has a bias against Netflix, so don’t expect The Ballad of Buster Scruggs to make an appearance here (ditto Private Life). It’s been years since we’ve seen a film like Hereditary, but something tells me the Academy is still patting itself on the back for nominating a horror film (Get Out) last year. Green Book has a huge asterisk next to it now, thanks to co-writer Nick Vallelonga’s racist tweet about Muslims, so we’ll see if it can maintain its momentum.

Best Director

Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born

Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman

Alfonso Cuaron, Roma

Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite

Peter Farrelly, Green Book

Yeah, unfortunately, Farrelly is going to ride Green Book‘s Globe success to a nomination here, beating out more interesting choices like Black Panther‘s Ryan Coogler, If Beale Street Could Talk‘s Barry Jenkins, Widows‘ Steve McQueen, First Reformed‘s Paul Schrader, Sorry to Bother You‘s Boots Riley, The Rider‘s Chloe Zhao, and Madeline’s Madeline‘s Josephine Dekker. If anyone takes Farrelly’s place, expect it to be newly minted Academy darling Damien Chazelle, for First Man (or possibly Adam McKay, for Vice) This could be one of the night’s tightest races, between Cuaron, Lee (who, in Academy parlance, is “due”), and Cooper (who directed the everloving shit out of A Star is Born). Although, to be fair, Farrelly has come under fire lately, for exposing himself to Cameron Diaz on the set of There’s Something About Mary, so don’t be surprised at a certain amount of ass-covering on the Academy’s part. This happened last year, when James Franco (seen as a heavy front-runner for The Disaster Artist) was denied a nomination.

Best Actor

Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born

Viggo Mortensen, Green Book

Christian Bale, Vice

Ethan Hawke, First Reformed

Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody

This is another field that we’re pretty sure about. These men have basically dominated the awards conversation thus far, and it will most likely come down to a choice between Cooper and Malek. Which is a shame – not to take away from either’s performance, but when was the last time you saw a performance as revelatory and transformative as Ethan Hawke’s in First Reformed? It’s possible that Ryan Gosling (First Man) or John David Washington (BlacKkKlansman) might sneak in there, or possibly even Joaquin Phoenix (You Were Never Really Here). But I wouldn’t bet on being surprised.

Best Actress

Olivia Colman, The Favourite

Toni Collette, Hereditary

Glenn Close, The Wife

Lady Gaga, A Star is Born

Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

The only “sure” things here are Colman, Close, and Gaga. McCarthy is a strong bet, and Collette might be a little too left-field for the Academy, but I’m trying to be optimistic here. Nicole Kidman (Destroyer), Rosamund Pike (A Private War), or Elsie Fisher (Eighth Grade) might make a surprise appearance, but, as with the Best Actor category, I feel pretty good about this. Or the Academy could go with a real outside choice, Roma‘s Yalitza Aparicio. You also shouldn’t be surprised to see Emily Blunt nominated for Mary Poppins Returns, prompting a wave of dipshit thinkpieces about how she deserved it more for A Quiet Place. Which isn’t, you know, untrue, but it’s the kind of point that literally anyone is capable of making.

Best Supporting Actor

Mahershala Ali, Green Book

Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman

Sam Rockwell, Vice

Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Sam Elliott, A Star is Born

The Globes snubbed Elliott for one of the best performances of his long career, and I anticipate the Academy making things right. They’re a more sentimental organization. Any spoilers could come from Beautiful Boy‘s Timothee Chalamet, or (in a much cooler world) Buster Scruggs‘ Tom Waits. This season has been focused a lot on Grant, so expect him to walk away with the trophy, easily. Although, the Academy seems determined to give Lin-Manuel Miranda an Oscar, so don’t be surprised if he rides the swell of his Globe nomination for Mary Poppins Returns.

Best Supporting Actress

Emma Stone, The Favourite

Rachel Weisz, The Favourite

Amy Adams, Vice

Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk

Claire Foy, First Man

I expect this to be a carbon copy of the Globe nominees, and I expect Adams to go home empty-handed once again. She’s terrific in Vice, but it’s not the film’s meatiest role. This will most likely go to King, who fits the Academy’s idea of who is “due” (see Lee, Spike, above). A cool addition would be Tessa Thompson for Sorry to Bother You, another film that has gone almost completely unrecognized this season.

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