The Golden Globes are deader than disco, with an audience-less ceremony relegated to an unhinged Twitter rant that didn’t even mention the names of the films being awarded. Anyway, with the Globes rapidly becoming irrelevant (which they basically already have been), more attention will be paid to the Oscars, arguably the only award worth paying attention to, inasmuch as any awards are worthy of attention. Here are our predictions for the Oscar nominees in all the big categories.
Best Picture
West Side Story
Power of the Dog
Belfast
CODA
Dune
King Richard
The Lost Daughter
Spencer
Licorice Pizza
I only listed nine films, because I’m not quite sure what will take the last spot. Cynically, I wouldn’t be surprised if Don’t Look Up rode the backlash-to-the-backlash to a nomination, especially because its writer and director are doing a full-court press on Twitter, accusing anyone who doesn’t like the movie of not caring about climate change. The French Dispatch could sneak in; it doesn’t have the heat of other films, but the Academy is made up of a lot of Wes Anderson fans. The other two possibles are longshots: C’mon C’mon and tick, tick…BOOM! (which might have the most annoying title of any film in this conversation). It’s also never wise to count out a Coen brother, so don’t be surprised if The Tragedy of Macbeth shows up on this list. Drive My Car has been getting a lot of attention from various critics’ groups, but critics don’t vote for the Oscars, which is a good thing because if they did we’d get a bunch of terminally online dopes giving awards to Furious 7.
Best Director
Steven Spielberg, West Side Story
Jane Campion, Power of the Dog
Denis Villenueve, Dune
Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza
Kenneth Branagh, Belfast
Best Director has become one of the more unpredictable races of late. I’m fairly confident about these five, but more and more we’ve seen left-field wild card nominees, like Cold War‘s Pawel Pawlikowski or Foxcatcher‘s Bennett Miller. So the fifth spot here could go to Spencer‘s Pablo Larrain, The Hand of God‘s Paolo Sorrentino, Titane‘s Julia Ducournau, The French Dispatch‘s Wes Anderson, Don’t Look Up‘s Adam McKay, C’mon C’mon‘s Mike Mills, tick, tick…BOOM!‘s Lin-Manuel Miranda, The Lost Daughter‘s Maggie Gyllenhaal, Pig‘s Michael Sarnoski, The Green Knight‘s David Lowery, or The Tragedy of Macbeth‘s Joel Coen.
Best Actor
Andrew Garfield, tick, tick…BOOM!
Benedict Cumberbatch, Power of the Dog
Will Smith, King Richard
Nicolas Cage, Pig
Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth
The only “maybe” I can consider for this group is a showing from Joaquin Phoenix, who in addition to being a past winner has also been garnering raves for his role in C’mon C’mon. The darkest of all horses would be Javier Bardem for Being the Ricardos. Cumberbatch and Smith are the odds-on favorites, but there does exist a world in which they split the vote and allow Garfield to emerge victorious.
Best Actress
Lady Gaga, House of Gucci
Kristen Stewart, Spencer
Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter
Alana Haim, Licorice Pizza
Rachel Ziegler, West Side Story
There’s a strong possibility that two of these nominees – unfortunately, the most likely are Ziegler and Haim- get knocked out in favor of Being the Ricardos‘ Nicole Kidman and The Worst Person in the World‘s Renata Reinsve. Otherwise, you’ve got possible nominations for Titane‘s Agathe Rousalle, Respect‘s Jennifer Hudson, Passing‘s Tessa Thompson, and The Eyes of Tammy Faye‘s Jessica Chastain. This category has favored the ingenues in the past (Emma Stone in La La Land, Jennifer Lawrence in Silver Linings Playbook), so hopefully Ziegler will make the final cut, especially because this category is insanely white otherwise.
Best Supporting Actor
Kodi Smit-McPhee, Power of the Dog
Mike Faist, West Side Story
Ciaran Hinds, Belfast
Jamie Dornan, Belfast
Troy Kotsur, CODA
Of these five, Dornan is the one most likely to see the chopping block. Smit-McPhee is the heavy favorite, and in all likelihood will become one of the youngest winners in this category (only Timothy Hutton will have been younger when he won for Ordinary People at 20). Nominations could conceivably go to The Lost Daughter‘s Ed Harris, Zola‘s Colman Domingo, The French Dispatch‘s Jeffrey Wright, The Last Duel‘s Ben Affleck, The Lost Daughter‘s Paul Mescal, Licorice Pizza‘s Bradley Cooper, Don’t Look Up‘s Jonah Hill, or House of Gucci‘s Jared Leto. Say what you want about Leto, but he’s one of the few actors unafraid to go for it, and his scenes in Gucci combine the film’s disparate tones of melodrama and camp.
Best Supporting Actress
Ariana Dubose, West Side Story
Rita Moreno, West Side Story
Kirsten Dunst, Power of the Dog
Ruth Negga, Passing
Catriona Balfe, Belfast
The only maybes I can think of for this category are The Lost Daughter‘s Jessie Buckley or Dakota Johnson. Whether they get the nod this year or not, it feels inevitable for both, as they’re rapidly becoming two of the most vital, interesting actors of their generation.
About Author
