GAMbIT’s Oscar Nomination Predictions

Boy, those Golden Globe nominations sure were dire, huh? In a year with several excellent films about being Black in America, the HFPA decided they’d rather take selfies with Sia and James Corden. Thankfully, the Globes don’t presage Oscar nominations, so there’s still a chance that this year’s ceremony could surprise us. With a few exceptions (Green Book), the Oscars have made some bold choices in the Best Picture winner, even if other categories have been resistant to diversifying. That could change this year, and I really hope it does. Here are GAMbIT’s predictions for some of the major categories at the Academy Awards.

Best Picture

The Safe Bets

Nomadland

The Trial of the Chicago 7

One Night in Miami…

Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

Promising Young Woman

The Possibles

Minari

Emma.

Da 5 Bloods

Mank

Judas and the Black Messiah

Soul

The Long Shots

The Father

Sound of Metal

United States vs. Billie Holiday

News of the World

Bad Education

The Academy has the chance to make some serious strides in the right direction here. By nominating Da 5 Bloods, One Night in Miami, Judas and the Black Messiah, and Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, it could show a real commitment to honoring and amplifying Black stories and voices. Of course, this is the Academy we’re talking about, so maybe expect a full sweep by The Father and Hillbilly Elegy. That’s not even to mention the thorny issue of Minari, an American film by an American director, filmed in America (keep in mind that Inglourious Basterds was nominated in this category, and only about 30% of that film is in English).

Best Director

The Safe Bets

Chloe Zhao, Nomadland

Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7

Regina King, One Night in Miami…

Spike Lee, Da 5 Bloods

David Fincher, Mank

The Possibles

Lee Isaac Chung, Minari

Paul Greengrass, News of the World

Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman

The Long Shots

Darius Marder, Sound of Metal

Autumn de Wilde, Emma.

This award has consistently gone to Chloe Zhao all season, and for good reason. She is a filmmaker of uncommon, deeply felt empathy. Cynically, I think that all but guarantees this as sewn up for Sorkin, but who doesn’t want to watch history being made? A woman hasn’t won this award since Kathryn Bigelow for The Hurt Locker, and between Zhao, King, Fennell, and de Wilde, it looks like that streak could be broken. Here’s hoping.

Best Actor

The Safe Bets

Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

Gary Oldman, Mank

Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods

Steven Yuen, Minari

Anthony Hopkins, The Father

The Possibles

Lakeith Stanfield, Judas and the Black Messiah

Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal

The Long Shots

Mads Mikkelsen, Another Round

Tom Hanks, News of the World

This is Boseman’s award to lose. He’s been sweeping up all season, and it’s easy to see why. His performance in Ma Rainey is the true lead of the film, and Boseman is a live wire, full of energy, rage, and pathos. It’s the kind of accomplished performance you see from a once-in-a-generation talent, and the tragedy here is that it’s the last Boseman performance we’ll ever see.

Best Supporting Actor

The Safe Bets

Paul Raci, Sound of Metal

Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7

Leslie Odom Jr., One Night in Miami…

David Strathairn, Nomadland

Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah

The Possibles

Kinglsey Ben-Adir, One Night in Miami…

Bill Nighy, Emma.

The Long Shots

Michael Stuhlbarg, Shirley

Glynn Turman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

Colman Domingo, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

Jesse Plemons, I’m Thinking of Ending Things

This will likely go to Odom Jr,. who gets the showiest role in his film. My favorite supporting performances of the year were from Raci and Ben-Adir, but both are the kind of quiet, unassuming performances that occasionally get nominated but are rarely rewarded. That being said, Mark Rylance won for a similar performance in Bridge of Spies, so it’s not unheard of.

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Best Actress

The Safe Bets

Frances McDormand, Nomadland

Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

Anya Taylor-Joy, Emma.

Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman

Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman

The Possibles

Kate Winslet, Ammonite

Amy Adams, Hillbilly Elegy

Elisabeth Moss, Shirley

The Long Shots

Rachel Brosnahan, I’m Your Woman

Jessie Buckley, I’m Thinking of Ending Things

Andra Day, United States vs. Billie Holiday

Julia Garner, The Assistant

This is more or less a lock for Davis, who gets to do what the Academy loves: sing, play a real person, and get covered in makeup. She’s terrific in the role, but were it not the title character, it would be better suited in the supporting category. It’s never wise to bet against McDormand, though. If the Academy didn’t hate horror movies so much (Lupita Nyong’o wasn’t even nominated for Us), Moss would get a nomination for The Invisible Man. Maybe someday.

Best Supporting Actress

The Safe Bets

Marina Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

Ellen Burstyn, Pieces of a Woman

Mia Goth, Emma.

Amanda Seyfried, Mank

Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy

The Possibles

Olivia Colman, The Father

Saoirse Ronan, Ammonite

The Long Shots

Lauren Ridloff, Sound of Metal

Olivia Cooke, Sound of Metal

Toni Collette, I’m Thinking of Ending Things

For my money, Ridloff gives the best performance of this bunch. She’s sympathetic and compassionate, fully-realized without speaking a word. That said, I can’t remember the last time the Academy awarded a full-throated comedic performance, and since Borat Subsequent Moviefilm had real-life repercussions (for Rudy Giuliani), how great would it be to see Bakalova take the award home? But we all know how badly the Academy wants to give Close an Oscar, so my bet is on her.

Best Original Screenplay

The Safe Bets

Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7

Jack Fincher, Mank

Pete Docter, Mike Jones, Kemp Powers, Soul

Lee Isaac Chung, Minari

Darius Marder, Sound of Metal

The Possibles

Kitty Green, The Assistant

The Long Shots

Andy Siara, Palm Springs

This award will go to Aaron Sorkin.

Best Adapted Screenplay

The Safe Bets

Autumn de Wilde, Emma.

Kemp Powers, One Night in Miami…

Ruben Santiago-Hudson, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

Chloe Zhao, Nomadland

Jonathan Raymond, Kelly Reichardt, First Cow

The Possibles

Sarah Gubbins, Shirley

Vanessa Taylor, Hillbilly Elegy

The Long Shots

Leigh Whannell, The Invisible Man

Charlie Kaufman, I’m Thinking of Ending Things

This is quietly a very competitive category, with no clear front-runner. I wouldn’t bet against Nomadland‘s momentum, but Powers and Santiago-Hudson both adapted powerful stage plays into thrilling films. I wouldn’t count anybody out here, but my money would be on Nomadland.

Today is February 12, and the Oscar nominations aren’t announced until March 15, so anything could happen. It’s been a pretty strange year. But one thing remains consistent: my belief that I am absolutely correct.

About Author

T. Dawson

Trevor Dawson is the Executive Editor of GAMbIT Magazine. He is a musician, an award-winning short story author, and a big fan of scotch. His work has appeared in Statement, Levels Below, Robbed of Sleep vols. 3 and 4, Amygdala, Mosaic, and Mangrove. Trevor lives in Denver, CO.

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