With the Oscar nominations announced tomorrow, it’s time for everyone’s favorite game: (mostly) baseless speculation! 2023 was an absolute barnburner of a year for movies, easily the strongest since 2019, and as a result the Oscar nominations could pull off the rare feat of being predictable and exciting. Here are GAMbIT Magazine’s predictions for the nominees in the big 8 categories.
Best Picture
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Barbie
Killers of the Flower Moon
The Holdovers
Anatomy of a Fall
The Zone of Interest
Maestro
American Fiction
The Color Purple
Maybe: May December; Past Lives; Origin
Long Shots: Nyad; Ferrari; Saltburn
Don’t expect a lot of surprises in this category – if any should arise, it will be Past Lives squeezing out something like Maestro or American Fiction. It’s got some juice since its recognition at the Golden Globes, which in turn have gained some legitimacy since the dissolution of the HFPA.
Best Director
Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things
Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon
Greta Gerwig, Barbie
Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest
Maybe: Celine Song, Past Lives; Michael Mann, Ferrari; Bradley Cooper, Maestro; Alexander Payne, The Holdovers; Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall
Long Shots: Ava DuVernay, Origin; Blitz Bazawule, The Color Purple
With KOTFM being largely snubbed at the BAFTAs, this is one category where I could feasibly see Cooper sliding in over Scorsese. Still, it’s never wise to bet against Marty. Justine Triet could very well be this year’s surprise inclusion, akin to past nominees like Lenny Abrahamson, Benh Zeitlin, Michael Haneke, or Pawel Pawlikowski.
Best Actor
Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers
Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer
Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon
Bradley Cooper, Maestro
Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction
Maybe: Barry Keoghan, Saltburn; Adam Driver, Ferrari
Long Shots: Joaquin Phoenix, Napoleon; Colman Domingo, Rustin
I’d bet pretty good money on the accuracy of this list. Yes, Leo was denied a BAFTA nomination, but two things are true: one, his performance is simply extraordinary; and two, the Academy has almost never failed to nominate him. Hell, he got a nomination for Blood Diamond. I wouldn’t be upset if Keoghan’s name showed up; his bravura performance in Saltburn is maybe the only thing about that divisive film that people can agree on.
Best Actress
Emma Stone, Poor Things
Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon
Margot Robbie, Barbie
Carey Mulligan, Maestro
Sandra Huller, Anatomy of a Fall
Maybe: Natalie Portman, May December; Annette Bening, Nyad; Anjanue Ellis-Taylor, Origin
Long Shots: Vanessa Kirby, Napoleon; Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple
Here’s another category I’m very confident in. Portman is terrific in May December, but has gone largely ignored this season. Barrino stands even less of a chance. That said, all these performances are incredible, so like I mentioned earlier: predictable and exciting.
Best Supporting Actor
Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things
Willem Dafoe, Poor Things
Ryan Gosling, Barbie
Robert DeNiro, Killers of the Flower Moon
Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer
Maybe: Charles Melton, May December
Long Shots: Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers; Glenn Howerton, BlackBerry
Look, I know Howerton isn’t getting the nod, but if he did it would rank among the coolest things the Academy has ever done. If Melton slips in, he’ll likely replace Dafoe, but there’s been a strange, observable trend of the Academy doubling up on supporting actors from the same movies lately (i.e. The Irishman, Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All at Once). Melton has done well for himself this award season in terms of nominations, but I take that as more of a vote of confidence in his future work.
Best Supporting Actress
Rosamund Pike, Saltburn
Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple
Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer
Penelope Cruz, Ferrari
Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers
Maybe: America Ferrera, Barbie; Jodie Foster, Nyad
Long Shots: Anne Hathaway, Eileen; Florence Pugh, Oppenheimer; Sandra Huller, The Zone of Interest
Randolph will cinch the nomination and the award, no question. The only surprise I’d anticipate here is Pugh sneaking in over Blunt, who gave a much less interesting (if still solid) performance. But don’t count on it.
Best Original Screenplay:
David Hemingson, The Holdovers
Bradley Cooper and Josh Singer, Maestro
Samy Burch, May December
Celine Song, Past Lives
Justine Triet and Arthur Harari, Anatomy of a Fall
Maybe: Wes Anderson, Asteroid City
Long Shots: Emerald Fennell, Saltburn
The Academy’s boneheaded decision to make Barbie compete in adapted screenplay basically clears the field for The Holdovers, while the adapted screenplay category into a cockfight.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
Greta Gerwig and Noah Baumbach, Barbie
Martin Scorsese and Eric Roth, Killers of the Flower Moon
Tony McNamara, Poor Things
Cord Jefferson, American Fiction
Maybe: Ava DuVernay, Origin
Long Shots: Andrew Haigh, All of Us Strangers
Origin is a marvel in terms of adaptation, but the marketing and promotion for it have been so bad that it’s possible that Academy members are forgetting about it. But they’ll never miss a chance to recognize DuVernay, so if Origin manages any nominations tomorrow, expect it to be here.
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