Boy, those Golden Globe nominations sure were dire, huh? In a year with several excellent films about being Black in America, the HFPA decided they’d rather take selfies with Sia and James Corden. Thankfully, the Globes don’t presage Oscar nominations, so there’s still a chance that this year’s ceremony could surprise us. With a few exceptions (Green Book), the Oscars have made some bold choices in the Best Picture winner, even if other categories have been resistant to diversifying. That could change this year, and I really hope it does. Here are GAMbIT’s predictions for some of the major categories at the Academy Awards.
Best Picture
The Safe Bets
Nomadland
The Trial of the Chicago 7
One Night in Miami…
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Promising Young Woman
The Possibles
Minari
Emma.
Da 5 Bloods
Mank
Judas and the Black Messiah
Soul
The Long Shots
The Father
Sound of Metal
United States vs. Billie Holiday
News of the World
Bad Education
The Academy has the chance to make some serious strides in the right direction here. By nominating Da 5 Bloods, One Night in Miami, Judas and the Black Messiah, and Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, it could show a real commitment to honoring and amplifying Black stories and voices. Of course, this is the Academy we’re talking about, so maybe expect a full sweep by The Father and Hillbilly Elegy. That’s not even to mention the thorny issue of Minari, an American film by an American director, filmed in America (keep in mind that Inglourious Basterds was nominated in this category, and only about 30% of that film is in English).
Best Director
The Safe Bets
Chloe Zhao, Nomadland
Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Regina King, One Night in Miami…
Spike Lee, Da 5 Bloods
David Fincher, Mank
The Possibles
Lee Isaac Chung, Minari
Paul Greengrass, News of the World
Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman
The Long Shots
Darius Marder, Sound of Metal
Autumn de Wilde, Emma.
This award has consistently gone to Chloe Zhao all season, and for good reason. She is a filmmaker of uncommon, deeply felt empathy. Cynically, I think that all but guarantees this as sewn up for Sorkin, but who doesn’t want to watch history being made? A woman hasn’t won this award since Kathryn Bigelow for The Hurt Locker, and between Zhao, King, Fennell, and de Wilde, it looks like that streak could be broken. Here’s hoping.
Best Actor
The Safe Bets
Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Gary Oldman, Mank
Delroy Lindo, Da 5 Bloods
Steven Yuen, Minari
Anthony Hopkins, The Father
The Possibles
Lakeith Stanfield, Judas and the Black Messiah
Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal
The Long Shots
Mads Mikkelsen, Another Round
Tom Hanks, News of the World
This is Boseman’s award to lose. He’s been sweeping up all season, and it’s easy to see why. His performance in Ma Rainey is the true lead of the film, and Boseman is a live wire, full of energy, rage, and pathos. It’s the kind of accomplished performance you see from a once-in-a-generation talent, and the tragedy here is that it’s the last Boseman performance we’ll ever see.
Best Supporting Actor
The Safe Bets
Paul Raci, Sound of Metal
Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Leslie Odom Jr., One Night in Miami…
David Strathairn, Nomadland
Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah
The Possibles
Kinglsey Ben-Adir, One Night in Miami…
Bill Nighy, Emma.
The Long Shots
Michael Stuhlbarg, Shirley
Glynn Turman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Colman Domingo, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Jesse Plemons, I’m Thinking of Ending Things
This will likely go to Odom Jr,. who gets the showiest role in his film. My favorite supporting performances of the year were from Raci and Ben-Adir, but both are the kind of quiet, unassuming performances that occasionally get nominated but are rarely rewarded. That being said, Mark Rylance won for a similar performance in Bridge of Spies, so it’s not unheard of.
Best Actress
The Safe Bets
Frances McDormand, Nomadland
Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Anya Taylor-Joy, Emma.
Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman
Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman
The Possibles
Kate Winslet, Ammonite
Amy Adams, Hillbilly Elegy
Elisabeth Moss, Shirley
The Long Shots
Rachel Brosnahan, I’m Your Woman
Jessie Buckley, I’m Thinking of Ending Things
Andra Day, United States vs. Billie Holiday
Julia Garner, The Assistant
This is more or less a lock for Davis, who gets to do what the Academy loves: sing, play a real person, and get covered in makeup. She’s terrific in the role, but were it not the title character, it would be better suited in the supporting category. It’s never wise to bet against McDormand, though. If the Academy didn’t hate horror movies so much (Lupita Nyong’o wasn’t even nominated for Us), Moss would get a nomination for The Invisible Man. Maybe someday.
Best Supporting Actress
The Safe Bets
Marina Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Ellen Burstyn, Pieces of a Woman
Mia Goth, Emma.
Amanda Seyfried, Mank
Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy
The Possibles
Olivia Colman, The Father
Saoirse Ronan, Ammonite
The Long Shots
Lauren Ridloff, Sound of Metal
Olivia Cooke, Sound of Metal
Toni Collette, I’m Thinking of Ending Things
For my money, Ridloff gives the best performance of this bunch. She’s sympathetic and compassionate, fully-realized without speaking a word. That said, I can’t remember the last time the Academy awarded a full-throated comedic performance, and since Borat Subsequent Moviefilm had real-life repercussions (for Rudy Giuliani), how great would it be to see Bakalova take the award home? But we all know how badly the Academy wants to give Close an Oscar, so my bet is on her.
Best Original Screenplay
The Safe Bets
Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Jack Fincher, Mank
Pete Docter, Mike Jones, Kemp Powers, Soul
Lee Isaac Chung, Minari
Darius Marder, Sound of Metal
The Possibles
Kitty Green, The Assistant
The Long Shots
Andy Siara, Palm Springs
This award will go to Aaron Sorkin.
Best Adapted Screenplay
The Safe Bets
Autumn de Wilde, Emma.
Kemp Powers, One Night in Miami…
Ruben Santiago-Hudson, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Chloe Zhao, Nomadland
Jonathan Raymond, Kelly Reichardt, First Cow
The Possibles
Sarah Gubbins, Shirley
Vanessa Taylor, Hillbilly Elegy
The Long Shots
Leigh Whannell, The Invisible Man
Charlie Kaufman, I’m Thinking of Ending Things
This is quietly a very competitive category, with no clear front-runner. I wouldn’t bet against Nomadland‘s momentum, but Powers and Santiago-Hudson both adapted powerful stage plays into thrilling films. I wouldn’t count anybody out here, but my money would be on Nomadland.
Today is February 12, and the Oscar nominations aren’t announced until March 15, so anything could happen. It’s been a pretty strange year. But one thing remains consistent: my belief that I am absolutely correct.
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