The nominees for the 90th Academy Awards will be announced on Tuesday, January 23. So we thought we’d jump the gun a bit and offer some (probably very inaccurate) predictions on a few of the major categories.
Best Picture
Get Out
Dunkirk
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
The Shape of Water
The Post
Lady Bird
Call Me By Your Name
There are some possible dark-horse entries as well. Darkest Hour is getting raves for Gary Oldman’s performance, so expect that to sneak in; The Florida Project has somewhat fallen off of the radar, despite universal acclaim, but deserves recognition; Phantom Thread might be too staid and off-putting, terrific though it is; Wonder Woman and Logan would both be huge steps towards legitimizing the superhero genre; The Big Sick will get nominated elsewhere (most likely in the screenplay category) but not here; I, Tonya is a possibility, but it hasn’t gained enough steam; mother! is far too polarizing; The Lost City of Z is a tremendous film, but hasn’t been nominated for anything; and Star Wars: The Last Jedi has a semi-serious shot at becoming the first Star Wars film to get a Best Picture nomination since 1977.
Best Director
Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk
Steven Spielberg, The Post
Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird
Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water
Consider these five to be sure things (with del Toro or Nolan taking home the trophy, in all likelihood). Gerwig is the only variable here, but after the backlash directed at the Golden Globes for only nominating men, expect to see her name (that, and she did a wonderful job, let’s not forget that). Possibilities include Joe Wright (Darkest Hour), Jordan Peele (Get Out), Sean Baker (The Florida Project), James Franco (The Disaster Artist), Paul Thomas Anderson (Phantom Thread), and maybe even Patty Jenkins (Wonder Woman). Dee Rees will go tragically unrecognized for her amazing work on Mudbound, which was more or less abandoned by Netflix; Denis Villenueve will likely get no love for Blade Runner 2049, which is a travesty. The coolest possible surprise would be Taika Waititi getting nominated for Thor: Ragnarok, James Gray for The Lost City of Z, or Rian Johnson for Star Wars: The Last Jedi.
Best Actor
James Franco, The Disaster Artist
Timothee Chalamet, Call Me By Your Name
Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread
Tom Hanks, The Post
I hate to say it, but I think this is going to be one of the whitest categories of the night. These five are nearly a sure thing, with the exception of Franco, who’s in the midst of his own backlash right now (for the record, I think it will come down to Chalamet vs. Oldman). We could be surprised by Idris Elba, but Molly’s Game, when talked about at all, is only discussed in terms of Jessica Chastain’s performance; beyond that, Elba’s accent work is pretty rough. Hugh Jackman gives a raw, nearly elemental performance in Logan, which will be unfairly passed over. Daniel Kaluuya would make a fine inclusion, but Get Out has mostly been recognized for its writing (although Kaluuya’s SAG nomination doesn’t hurt his chances). And don’t be surprised if Denzel Washington manages to sneak in for Roman J. Israel, Esq.
Best Supporting Actor
Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water
Armie Hammer, Call Me By Your Name
Dafoe was the early favorite to win this (it’s a career-best performance), but Rockwell has gained a lot of momentum since winning the Golden Globe in this same category. Some long shots which would be pleasantly surprising: Jason Mitchell (Mudbound), Jon Hamm (Baby Driver), Mark Hamill (Star Wars: The Last Jedi), Harrison Ford (Blade Runner 2049), Patrick Stewart (Logan), Ed Harris (mother!), Sebastian Stan (I, Tonya), Ben Mendelsohn (Darkest Hour), Adam Sandler (The Meyerowitz Stories: New and Selected), Bill Skarsgard (It), Christopher Plummer (All the Money in the World), Robert Pattinson (The Lost City of Z), Ray Romano (The Big Sick), Michael Shannon (The Shape of Water), Michael Stuhlbargh (Call Me By Your Name), or Daniel Craig (Logan Lucky).
Best Actress
Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird
Margot Robbie, I, Tonya
Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water
Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Meryl Streep, The Post
I gotta be honest: as I’m writing this, I’m getting the sinking feeling that, despite the massive strides made towards social progress in 2017, we’re looking at another #OscarsSoWhite controversy. All five of these women are practically guaranteed a nomination, and I think it will ultimately come down to Ronan or McDormand, but it’s still not a great look for the Academy. Of course, come Tuesday I could be proven very wrong, which would be a great surprise. The maybes here are Jennifer Lawrence (mother!), Jessica Chastain (Molly’s Game), Rooney Mara (A Ghost Story), Nicole Kidman (The Beguiled), Kristen Stewart (Personal Shopper), or Michelle Williams (All the Money in the World). All of whom are white. Yeesh.
Best Supporting Actress
Allison Janney, I, Tonya
Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water
Vicky Krieps, Phantom Thread
Mary J. Blige, Mudbound
I honestly think this is the only category in which we can expect any representation for actresses of color. Blige has been Mudbound‘s only nominee, so her presence here is a safe bet. Regardless, I think this comes down to Metcalf or Janney, but don’t discount Krieps’ terrific work in Phantom Thread. Holly Hunter was one of the best parts of The Big Sick, but the Academy hates comedies, so consider her a long shot. And yeah, we’d all like it if Tiffany Haddish were nominated for Girls Trip, but guys: it ain’t gonna happen.
We’ll publish the actual nominees once they’re announced on the 23rd, at which point I will either concede that I was totally wrong about everything, or brag about how goddamn smart I am.
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