After the Golden Globes torpedoed their credibility by rewarding Lady Gaga over Kirsten Dunst, I’ve been waiting for a solid crop of Oscar nominees to wash the taste out of my mouth. And this year’s aren’t bad! They also aren’t very diverse. Let’s get into it.

Best Picture

Bridge of Spies

Mad Max: Fury Road

The Revenant

Spotlight

The Martian

The Big Short

Room

Brooklyn

Okay, right away there’s a problem. These are all good movies, but they’re also all about white people, made by white people. That isn’t inherently problematic, but Creed and Straight Outta Compton, for instance, are both better than The Revenant, and they’re both sorely lacking in nominations this year. This will be a recurring theme. Spotlight and The Big Short are the best movies on this list, but they’re not as showy as The Revenant. Spotlight should win, The Big Short has a shot at actually winning, and in spite of everything I think it’s awesome that we live in a world where Mad Max got a Best Picture nomination.

Best Actor

Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl

Bryan Cranston, Trumbo

Matt Damon, The Martian

Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs

Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant

I hope Leo wins – which he will – so he can give up this Winsletian quest for an Oscar and start making some romantic comedies or doing some voiceover work or something. Dude needs a break. (Also, Winsletian is like Ahabian, only instead of going after a whale like Ahab, you obsessively go after an Oscar like Kate Winslet.) Why Creed‘s Michael B. Jordan isn’t here I have no idea. There must be something about him that’s radically different from the other nominees, something the Academy is slow to accept…hmm, wonder what it is. Bonus omission: Ian McKellan for Mr. Holmes.

Best Actress

Brie Larson, Room

Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years

Cate Blanchett, Carol

Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn

Jennifer Lawrence, Joy

I’m hoping this goes to Larson just so we can talk about actresses in American who aren’t Blanchett or Lawrence, the latter of whom starred in a two-hour gif set of herself that had maybe the worst scene of any movie in 2015 (the “four questions of financial worthiness”). Also, I want a blogging Oscar because I didn’t even have to check how to spell Ronan’s first name! I…I live a sad life, just give me this, okay?

Best Supporting Actress

Rachel McAdams, Spotlight

Rooney Mara, Carol

Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight

Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs

Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl

Ugh, this fuckin category. Right away, no Tessa Thompson for Creed? Cool, I guess. Congrats for McAdams, she was solid as ever and it’s about time she got some recognition. Winslet doesn’t in any universe deserve an award for Jobs, where her accent varied from scene to scene and she got frumpy in a blatant attempt to give her Best Actress Oscar some company at home (btw, Kate, no one liked The Reader then, and no one likes it now). Vikander should definitely be here – for Ex Machina. This really could go to anyone, but which I mean Winslet or Leigh, by which I mean Winslet. Of course.

Best Supporting Actor

Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight

Sylvester Stallone, Creed

Tom Hardy, The Revenant

Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies

Christian Bale, The Big Short

I would have given Steve Carell the acting nomination over Bale, which is a weird sentence to type. This is a very solid category, but there are two glaring omissions, and they both happen to be nonwhite actors: Jason Mitchell in Straight Outta Compton and Oscar Isaac in Ex Machina. That said, I’d give this to Ruffalo, but realistically it’s going to go to Stallone, the sentimental favorite. I’m not even mad about that. Stallone was legitimately great.

Best Director

George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road

Adam McKay, The Big Short

Lenny Abrahamson, Room

Tom McCarthy, Spotlight

Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, The Revenant

Oh man, how cool would it be if Miller won this? Inarritu is unlikely to repeat his victory for Birdman (in the Academy’s history, only once has someone won Best Director twice in a row, John Ford for The Grapes of Wrath and How Green Was My Valley, a fact I didn’t even have to Google because I’ve never felt the touch of a woman). McCarthy’s direction isn’t splashy enough, and Abrahamson should be happy just to be here. I think we’re looking at McKay, which is cool in a whole different way: the director of Anchorman is about to win an Oscar. This whole category would be a lock for Creed‘s Ryan Coogler if he were, you know, nominated.

Best Original Song

“Simple Song #3,” David Lang, from Youth

“Til it Happens to You,” Diane Warren and Lady Gaga, from The Hunting Ground

“Writing’s on the Wall,” Sam Smith and Jimmy Napes, from Spectre

“Earned It,” The Weeknd, Stephan Moccio, et al, from Fifty Shades of Grey

Oh God I hope Sam Smith wins, only because I do not want to live in a world where Lady Gaga or The Weeknd are Oscar winners. I still kinda give a shit about this award, just throw more Golden Globes at em.

Best Foreign Language Film

A War

Son of Saul

Mustang

Theeb

Embrace of the Serpent

I haven’t seen any of these, but I hope Son of Saul wins, because my fellow critic Nate hated it soooo much.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Drew Goddard, The Martian

Adam McKay and Charles Randolph, The Big Short

Emma Donoghue, Room

Nick Hornby, Brooklyn

Phyllis Nagy, Carol

The Martian and The Big Short are the flashiest films on this list, and once again I think we’re looking at an Oscar for the guy who made Step Brothers. People always say that author Michael Lewis’s books aren’t cinematic, but look at the movies they’ve spawned: The Blind Side, Moneyball, and The Big Short. Two of those are really good, and all three were nominated for Best Picture. Here’s the wild card: the Academy is full of people with boners for Nick Hornby.

Best Original Screenplay

Joel and Ethan Coen and Matt Charman, Bridge of Spies

Tom McCarthy and Josh Singer, Spotlight

Alex Garland, Ex Machina

Pete Docter, Josh Cooley, Meg LaFauve, Inside Out

Andrea Berloff and Jonathan Herman, Straight Outta Compton

Spotlight is 95% dialogue and somehow avoids being boring. It deserves to win. However, Ex Machina and Inside Out have the benefit of being thrillingly original. Compton was a solid film, but from a screenwriting angle, a lot of it felt like a hagiography of Ice Cube, and the omission of Dr. Dre’s woman-beating past reeks pretty badly of script approval by the subject. Inside Out will win for animated picture, so I see this going to Spotlight, with a possible upset from Ex Machina. I’m okay with any of this.

Best Animated Feature

Shaun the Sheep Movie

When Marnie Was There

Inside Out

Anomalisa

Boy & The World

Obviously this is going to Inside Out. Some people will say that the Academy will give it to Marnie, to honor the dearly departed Studio Ghibli, but if the Academy gave a shit about Studio Ghibli, don’t you think they would have nominated them with any regularity? I’m also excited to never have to hear about Shaun the Sheep Movie ever again.

Best Original Score

Thomas Newman, Bridge of Spies

John Williams, Star Wars: Episode VII – The Force Awakens

Johan Johansson, Sicario

Carter Burwell, Carol

Ennio Morricone, The Hateful Eight

I need this to go to Morricone. You know he’s never won an Oscar? They guy who wrote the music to The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly has never won.

Best Cinematography

Robert Richardson, The Hateful Eight

Emmanuel Lubezki, The Revenant

Roger Deakins, Sicario

John Seale, Mad Max: Fury Road

Edward Lachman, Carol

This is how you make a goddamn category. All these movies are gorgeous. I think Lubezki will win for this one. The man is nothing less than a visual poet, and the work he did with natural light in The Revenant is too good to be ignored. Honestly, unless The Revenant sweeps – which it shouldn’t – I think this will be its only award. “But, but!” you sputter, like an asshole. “It’s up for so many!” Yeah, you know what other movies were up for a ton of Oscars without winning any? True Grit, Gangs of New York, and American Hustle. It’s not unheard of. You know what I’m glad isn’t here? Tangerine. I am so goddamn sick and tired of hearing about how it was shot on an iPhone.

Okay, look, I’m getting tired of writing this. You can find the list of nominees here, but here’s a quick rundown of my picks for the rest of the winners.

Best Documentary: What Happened, Miss Simone? The Academy loves documentaries about singers, and if The Act of Killing couldn’t beat 20 Feet From Stardom, there’s no way the sequel The Look of Silence is beating Miss Simone. Alternate choice: Amy.

Best Costume Design: Cinderella. Keira Knightley wasn’t in a movie in 2015, so there were very few historical dramas. Cinderella is the closest thing on this list, ergo it wins in a walk.

Best Visual Effects: Ex Machina. Beautifully subtle in its depiction of Ava. But The Revenant might walk away with it – the rest of the film notwithstanding, that bear looked terrific.

Best Film Editing: Mad Max: Fury Road. This was editor Margaret Sixel’s first attempt at editing an action film, and I’d say she did a pretty good job, wouldn’t you? There was no more thrilling movie all year, and a lot of that was due to Sixel’s kinetic, nearly visceral take on George Miller’s violent mosaic. Bonus: the Academy usually gives Best Picture to whatever wins Best Editing, so fingers crossed for a Mad Max upset.

I didn’t look at Best Documentary Short, Best Live Action Short, or Best Animated Short, because those are stupid. The Oscars will air on February 28.

 

 

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