With a mostly predictable Golden Globes ceremony in the can, it’s time for everyone’s favorite part of awards season: baseless speculation. You can go to other sites for that. Here at GAMbIT we’re right all the time. Keep scrolling to see our unassailable predictions.
Best Picture
Tar
The Fabelmans
Everything Everywhere All At Once
Avatar: The Way of Water
Elvis
The Banshees of Inisherin
It really sucks that a Baz Luhrmann movie is about to get a Best Picture nomination. His kitschy maximalism might not produce the best movie, but it definitely produces the most movie. There’s a way to do that correctly – Everything Everywhere is a prime example – but the director of Moulin Rouge!, one of the worst Best Picture nominees in Oscar history, can’t look beyond the bombast. Ever since Parasite won and Drive My Car was nominated, the gates have opened to more foreign representation in this category, so it wouldn’t be a surprise to see RRR or Decision to Leave score a nomination. Other longshots include Babylon and Top Gun: Maverick, the latter of which is buoyed by its recent Globe nomination.
Best Director
Todd Field, Tar
Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans
Daniel Kwan and Daniel Sheinert, Everything Everywhere All At Once
James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water
Baz Luhrmann, Elvis
Yet again Luhrmann’s presence cheapens the value of the nomination. The smart money has this going to Spielberg, who just won a Golden Globe, but a win for the EEAAO would mean a lot not only for representation on film, but for directing duos (only two have won in the past, the most recent being the Coen brothers in 2007). Longshot possibilities include Babylon‘s Damien Chazelle and Nope‘s Jordan Peele, but if anyone is going to crash this party, expect it to be RRR‘s S.S. Rajamouli.
Best Actor
Brendan Fraser, The Whale
Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin
Austin Butler, Elvis
Jeremy Pope, The Inspection
Bill Nighy, Living
There’s a real good chance that Butler wins an Oscar before Farrell does, which is total bullshit, but might have the benefit of being able to ignore Butler as the flash in the pan he is after Oscar night. All told, this is a pretty boring category, but a win for Farrell would be electrifying.
Best Actress
Cate Blanchett, Tar
Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All At Once
Ana de Armas, Blonde
Olivia Colman, Empire of Light
Emma Thompson, Good Luck to You, Leo Grande
Cate Blanchett is going to win this, hands down. If anyone spoils it for her it’ll be Yeoh, whose transformative performance is truly something special. But I wouldn’t count on it. Other possible nominees include Michelle Williams (The Fabelmans), Viola Davis (The Woman King), Margot Robbie (Babylon), and Leslie Manville (Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris).
Best Supporting Actor
Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All At Once
Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin
Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin
Paul Dano, The Fabelmans
Brad Pitt, Babylon
Normally when a film has two actors in the same category it’s expected that they’ll split the vote, but Keoghan (as great as he is in Banshees) doesn’t have the momentum that Gleeson does. Not that it matters much; this is almost certainly going to Quan, who not only delivers an absolute knockout of a performance, but has the comeback narrative behind him as well.
Best Supporting Actress
Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin
Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All At Once
Carey Mulligan, She Said
Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
I’m not sure who the fifth spot will go to here. It’s possible that Samantha Morton takes Mulligan’s spot for She Said; it’s also possible that Stephanie Hsu will sneak in for her incredible role in EEAAO. Either way, the good money is on Curtis or Bassett, both of whom are long overdue for some Academy recognition.
Best Original Screenplay
Steven Spielberg and Tony Kushner, The Fabelmans
Todd Field, Tar
Daniel Kwan and Daniel Sheinert, Everything Everywhere All At Once
Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin
Sarah Polley, Women Talking
This is likely a toss-up between EEAAO and Banshees, with the latter favored heavily to win. But remember, we live in such a weird time for the movies that Steven Spielberg is considered an underdog, so don’t be surprised if he and Kushner walk away with this, which would most likely mean Fabelmans getting shut out elsewhere. Some other possibilities include The Menu, Babylon, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Triangle of Sadness, Empire of Light, or Good Luck to You, Leo Grande.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Samuel Hunter, The Whale, based on his play
Noah Baumbach, White Noise, based on Don DeLillo’s novel
Kazuo Ishiguro, Living, based on Akira Kurosawa’s screenplay Ikiru
Guillermo del Toro and Patrick McHale, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, based on Carlo Collodi’s novel
Rebecca Lenkiewicz, She Said, based on Jodi Kantor and Megan Twohey’s book
This is another category that’s hard to predict, but don’t bet against Kazuo Ishiguro. Some other possible nominees include Blonde, All Quiet on The Western Front, The Son, and Marcel the Shell With Shoes On.
Nominations are announced January 24 – check back in here to see how right we are!
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